NOT SO FAST – AT 8:53 A.M. ET:  Already the 2016 spin machine has been plugged in.  We're being told that the Democrats will almost certainly retake the Senate that year because they felt a difficult map.  Not so fast says ace political reporter Michael Barone: 

Even as Republicans are about to regain a majority in the Senate after eight years in the minority, the conventional wisdom around Washington is that Democrats are likely to win back that majority again in 2016. That’s certainly possible, but it’s short of a slam dunk.

Superficially, the field of Senate seats up in 2016 looks as unfavorable for Republicans and the field of Senate seats up this year looked for Democrats. Of the 36 seats up in 2014, Democrats were defending 21, including seven in states carried by Mitt Romney. Of the 34 seats currently up in 2016, Republicans will be defending even more, 24, including seven in states Barack Obama carried in 2012.

In a nation that increasingly votes straight ticket, there is a high correlation between voting for president and voting for Senate. Harry Enten and Dhrumil Mehta of fivethirtyeight.com calculate that “it explained over 75 percent of the variation in results across the [Senate] races this year. That’s the highest ever.”

But...

However, Republicans don’t face the peril in 2016 that Democrats faced in 2014. Six of the seven Democratic seats up this year in Romney states were in states where Obama lost by double-digit margins. Only North Carolina was close, and Republican Thom Tillis won there by the same 2-point margin by which Romney carried the state in 2012.

In contrast, six of the seven seats Republicans will be defending in 2016 are in states which Obama carried with between 50 and 52 percent of the vote — states that are no more heavily Democratic than Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire and Virginia, where Republican non-incumbents were competitive this year.

In three of these Obama states, Republican incumbents have shown a capacity to run well ahead of their party — Charles Grassley in Iowa (52 percent Obama), Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire (52 percent) and Rob Portman in Ohio (51 percent). They may well do so again.

Three others would not have to run much ahead of party lines to prevail — Marco Rubio in Florida (where Obama got 50 percent), Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania (52 percent) and Ron Johnson in Wisconsin (52 percent).

COMMENT:  Nothing like a little good news to get the week started.  Of course, Barone is writing from today's perspective.  However, we don't see anything on the horizon to suggest that Democratic/Obama policies will be any more popular in 2016 than they are now.

December 8,  2014